The Credibility Gap
Analyzing the "Pre-Election Survey" by Projection BD & Partners. Why 22,174 respondents mean nothing without transparency.
Issued by: Minhaz Samad Chowdhury | Date: Jan 12, 2026
The Illusion of Certainty
A recently circulated survey claims to reveal the pulse of the electorate across 64 districts. While the sample size is impressive on paper, the complete absence of methodological proof renders the findings scientifically unverifiable. This infographic deconstructs the gap between the headline claims and the hidden reality of how—or if—this data was rigorously collected.
1. The Unverified Numbers
The survey released striking "neck-and-neck" figures, suggesting a tight contest between major political blocs. While these numbers grab headlines, they are presented without a margin of error or weighting scheme.
Why this matters:
Without knowing how these voters were selected (randomly? online? street intercept?), these percentages could be off by double digits. The narrative of a "close race" may be a statistical mirage.
Reported Vote Share (Context Only)
* Warning: Methodology undisclosed. Reliability unproven.
Four Critical Failures
We identified four primary reasons why this survey fails to meet the threshold for credible public polling.
Insufficient Disclosure
No sampling design, no response rates, no weighting info. The "black box" of data.
Narrative Framing
"Neck-and-neck" language acts as political messaging, not neutral scientific observation.
No Quality Safeguards
Large sample sizes (22k) are meaningless without proof of integrity and controls.
Public Harm
Opaque polling erodes democratic trust and polarizes society in pre-election periods.
2. The Transparency Audit
Credible polling requires transparency. We compared the survey's public release against international standards (ESOMAR/WAPOR). The results show a near-total failure to disclose essential methodology.
Required vs. Disclosed Information
Detailed Disclosure Checklist
Timeline of Events
Nov 21 - Dec 20, 2025
Fieldwork Period (Reported)
22,174 interviews claimed, method unknown.
Early Jan 2026
Results Publicized
Headline figures released without technical documentation.
Jan 12, 2026
Formal Rebuttal Issued
Call for full methodological transparency.
Our Demand
Until standard disclosures are made, this survey must not be treated as reliable evidence.
- Publish the Sampling Frame
- Reveal the Selection Method
- Release the Full Questionnaire
- State the Weighting Scheme
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